Monday morning musing

Why is the electorate suddenly not listening to John Howard? Scare campaigns about interest rates, unions, "the economy", terrorists, and foreigners worked before, but suddenly they're not getting any traction at all. Voters are yawning "heard this before", and switching off. It must be frustrating the hell out of the strategists at Liberal party headquarters: what else can we try? We're running out of tricks!

The pundits have theories, of course. Kenneth Davidson is in the paper today opining that it's because the battlers are suddenly realising how much in debt they are and are worried about the declining social safety nets under the conservatives. Opinion writers in love with the Coalition's own self-image argue that voters are complacent because the economy is "so strong" and they think they can "risk" a Labor government, the ungrateful wretches.

But none of those factors are new. They'd all have applied in 2001, or 2004. The only thing that's changed is the time. I suspect it's really quite simple: voters get sick of a government after about a decade. If there's an opposition that's not completely ludicrous, and if the party in power can't find a new, inventive, attention-grabbing scare campaign that the electorate hasn't recently heard, then the government is going to lose.

In other words, it isn't anything Howard's done. Depressingly, he's not being punished because the electorate finally sees through the bullshit, corruption and lies. He's being punished because they've heard all his lines and want to try something else. (Which means that there's no disincentive for the next government to try the same thing.)

Actually, I have another theory. It's because the Coalition story about itself and reality are diverging ever more obviously. Because voters who are feeling pinched, who are seeing groceries, petrol and other goods' prices increase ahead of their salaries, who are increasingly in debt, who can't afford to buy a house - as soon as you start talking about how much better off they are than ever before, you lose all credibility. And the Coalition's view of itself doesn't allow it to concede that anyone might be doing it tough under its leadership.

Maybe that's the blunder - maybe the conservatives would be having more luck with their "Look! A muslim terrorist under your bed!" campaign if they were willing to concede some ground on the economic story in the interests of regaining credibility.

They won't of course - they believe their own bullshit.

And they're out of ideas.

At least Howard's not doing a Menzies, and retiring on top whilst still in command of his party and his legacy. Howard is going to stay and face the music. He's going to stay to be blamed for his party's defeat and relegation to many years in opposition. Sure, he's only doing it because he genuinely doesn't believe the voters could have deserted him - why would they? I haven't changed! - but this way his premiership will come to the only end it ever deserved: complete and total rejection by the electorate. Imagine if instead of leaving in ignominious defeat, blamed by his party, he'd left with dignity at a time of his choosing? Thank god that's not the way it'll end.